Consensus Forecasting Group Mtg - 8/15

Guest post by Rachel Phelps Bayens

The Consensus Forecasting Group (CFG) met for most of yesterday afternoon, reviewing tax receipts and determining which economic models will best forecast Kentucky's revenues for the next several years.  This meeting follows last week's CFG meeting when the group of non-partisan economists met to look at economic trends and national forecasts setting the stage for yesterday's meeting.  At the end of the four hour meeting, the CFG chose to use the "control' scenario for the estimates during this planning process, in both the General Fund and Road Fund. State law required the group to adopt a forecast, although it's only for preliminary planning purposes.  The CFG will reconvene in October and December to put together a more targeted forecast to be used by the Governor and General Assembly in putting together the state's biennial budget during the 2014 legislative session. Here's a break down of the forecast:

General Fund - The Forecast adopted by the CFG yesterday has 2.7% growth in FY 15 and 2.8% in FY 16.  The CFG does show a small decline in FY 14 revenues from the enacted forecast, a difference of 4.5 Million.  Overall, the coal severance tax and cigarette tax appear to be on a declining path with some growth in individual income and corporate taxes.  The sales tax is expected to be flat for the most part.  The primary reason is that sales tax growth is in areas that are currently exempt under Kentucky law, like groceries, utilities, and prescription drugs.

Road Fund - The CFG chose the control forecast for the Road Fund as well.  The primary takeaway though is that the one area of growth in the Road Fund for the past several years - the motor fuels tax - will not continue to increase.  The national forecasts that the CFG uses, predicts fuel prices will moderate, which will prevent the index included in KY law from being triggered.  As one of the staffers said in yesterday's meeting "we are likely not going to get any more pennies" within the period of time the group is forecasting.  In FY 15 the RF is estimated to decline by 3.1% and increase by 0.1% in FY 16.  The CFG also revised their current year (FY 14) estimate to reflect a difference of 28.4 million from the enacted estimate. 

The Office of the State Budget Director will put together a preliminary planning document based on yesterday's actions.  The CFG will have the opportunity to revise these estimates in October and December, if the landscape changes and as more information becomes available.  

Consensus Forecasting Group - 8/7 Meeting

Guest Post by Rachel Phelps

The Consensus Forecasting Group (CFG) met this morning in Frankfort.  The CFG is appointed by the Governor and consists of eight non-partisan economists charged by statute to develop budget forecasts and estimates that the Executive Branch and the General Assembly use to put together the state biennial budget. The group meets in August and October and then again at the end of the year, to meet the obligations of developing final budget estimates on or before the 15th legislative day in January.

Today's meeting consisted of a discussion of economic forecasts and then a review of the General Fund and Road Fund. The CFG also elected a new chair, Frank O'Connor, who replaced long time member and chair Lawrence Lynch.  There's been some turnover on the group, as at least four new members were present at today's meeting.

The Office of the State Budget Director presented to the group using forecasting models from Global Insight. Here are the highlights:

General Fund

• All Global Insight predictions on the Economy and recovery are heavily guarded by multiple caveats and the optimism is offset by uncertainty.
• KY sales and use tax receipts were down in FY13 and that represents the third decline in the previous five fiscal years.  Prior to this recent run, sales tax receipts fell only one time since 1979.
• Staff explained that a possible explanation to the declining sales tax is that the areas of sales that are growing are currently excluded from the tax in KY - not included in our base.  Examples are services, groceries, utilities, and prescription drugs.
• The sharp drop in coal severance tax receipts in FY13 erased all of the recessionary gains and returned the tax to pre-recession levels.  You will remember that coal severance was one of the highlights in terms of tax growth for KY during the recession.  Uncertainty going forward further clouds the outlook for coal.
• The individual and corporate income taxes have grown rapidly during the last three fiscal years.
• The LLET (Limited Liability Entity Tax) has doubled since the first full year of tax collections, after instituted in 08.
• KY is seeing growth in taxes based on income or gross receipts and declines in consumption based taxes.

Road Fund

• Since the gas tax index has been triggered, the Road Fund has grown from $1B per year to almost $1.5B.  
• The Motor Fuel tax has been the only area of growth within the Road Fund.
• With the price of gasoline expected to flatten, staff predicts challenges ahead for the Road Fund and anticipate a difficult time in forecasting for the next several years.

The CFG will reconvene on August 15th, take the data shared today and determine whether they plan to use a pessimistic, controlled, or optimistic outlook. They will discuss estimates at this meeting.

Fwd: LRC eNews

See the press release below from LRC in regards to new laws taking effect on June 25.

News Release

June 17, 2013

New Kentucky laws go into effect next week

FRANKFORT -- New laws approved during the Kentucky General Assembly's 2013 regular session go into effect on June 25.

That means laws against human trafficking will soon be strengthened. More DNA testing will be allowed as evidence in post-conviction felony cases. And school districts can start deciding whether they want to raise their compulsory attendance age to 18, though the 2015-16 school year would be the first year any changes could actually impact students.

The state constitution specifies that new laws take effect 90 days after the adjournment of the legislature, except for general appropriation measures and those containing emergency or delayed effective date provisions.

This year's regular session adjourned on March 26, making June 25 the day that most laws will take effect.

The laws taking effect that day include measures the following topics:

Child protection. House Bill 290 will establish by statute an independent review panel to investigate cases of child deaths and near-fatal injuries. The panel will be given access to complete records of the Cabinet for Health and Family Services, as well as information from law enforcement and other agencies involved in the cases.

Crime. Senate Bill 15, named the Bryan Durman Act in honor of a Lexington police officer who was killed by a hit-and-run driver in 2010, will ensure that a person convicted of criminal homicide in the killing of a police or firefighter on duty doesn't become eligible for probation or parole until 85 percent of a sentence is served.

DNA testing. HB 41 will allow some felony offenders in prison or under state supervision to request testing and analysis of their DNA as case evidence.

Hemp. SB 50 creates an administrative framework for the growing of hemp in Kentucky if the crop is legalized by the federal government.

Human trafficking. HB 3 will strengthen human trafficking laws while protecting victims from prosecution for crimes they were forced to commit. The legislation will offer assistance to agencies responsible for helping human trafficking victims by creating a "human trafficking victims fund" supported by service fees paid by convicted human traffickers, proceeds from seized and forfeited assets of traffickers, and any grants, contributions, or other funds that may become available.

Proof of insurance. HB 164 will allow people to use electronic insurance cards on their smart phones or other electronic devices as proof of motor vehicle insurance. Drivers will still be required to keep paper insurance cards in their vehicles.

Religious freedom. HB 279 specifies that government shall not burden a person's freedom of religion. The legislation states that an action motivated by a sincerely held religious belief can not be infringed upon without a compelling governmental interest. (HB 279 was vetoed by the governor; the veto was overridden by the House and Senate.)

Scholarships. SB 64 will ensure that students earning Kentucky Educational Excellence Scholarships aren't penalized in the amount of scholarship money they receive if they graduate from high school in three years rather than four.

School dropouts. SB 97 will allow school districts to increase the compulsory attendance age to 18 beginning in the 2015-16 school year. Districts that do so must have programs and resources in place for students at-risk of not graduating. The increased compulsory attendance age will become mandatory statewide four years after 55 percent of Kentucky school districts adopt it.

Student health. HB 172 will encourage schools to possess at least two epinephrine auto-injectors in case one is needed for a student having a life-threatening allergic or anaphylactic reaction.

Suicide prevention. SB 72 will require attendance at suicide prevention training programs at least once every six years for social workers, marriage and family therapists, professional counselors, fee-based pastoral counselors, alcohol and drug counselors, psychologists, and occupational therapists.

Teacher evaluations. HB 180 will require the Kentucky Board of Education to establish a statewide evaluation system for all certified personnel. The Department of Education, in consultation with teacher and principal steering committees, will develop the system prior to the 2014-2015 school year.

Tuition waivers. SB 95 will extend the five-year tuition waiver eligibility period for adopted children who serve in the military.

Victim protection. HB 222 will establish a crime victim protection program in the Secretary of State's office to allow domestic violence victims to have personal information, such as addresses, redacted from public voter registration roles. The legislation will also allow victims in the program to vote by mail-in absentee ballot.

--END--

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General Assembly Session to Resume

With the Veto Recess period ending this weekend, the General Assembly is set to reconvene on Monday, March 25 for the final two days of the legislative session. Although these final two days are generally reserved for overriding vetoes and not considering legislation yet to pass both Chambers, it is likely that we will see the General Assembly do just that on Monday and Tuesday. We expect at this point that March 26 will be the final day of the 2013 Regular Session, however by the constitution the General Assembly could hold the last day of the session as late as Saturday, March 30 if needed. The only foreseeable reason for legislators to need the extra time next week would be in regards to final negotiations for a compromise on the pension reform issue. Right now that doesn't seem necessary, but as the two sides continue to meet that may change. The pension reform issue has dominated the politics of this session and if a compromise cannot be reached surrounding how increased future contributions will be funded a special session on the topic may be necessary. 

Gov. Beshear’s Top 10 Accomplishments of 2012

Governor Beshear released his top accomplishments of 2012 today. Press release below:

Commonwealth of Kentucky Office of the Governor
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE	Contact:	Kerri Richardson 502.564.2611 502.330.6633 Terry Sebastian 502.564.2611 502.229.6130

Gov. Beshear's Top 10 Accomplishments of 2012

Kentucky earns national recognition for job growth, education improvement

FRANKFORT, Ky. (Dec. 20, 2012) – Nearly 15,000 new and protected jobs in the Commonwealth.  Another practical, balanced budget, with $1.6 billion in reductions since 2008.  Marshalling federal and state resources to help families and communities recover from devastating disasters.  These are just a few of the accomplishments Governor Steve Beshear highlighted in his "Top 10 Accomplishments of 2012" released today.

"I'm proud of the work we have done this year to help our families recover from tough times, from prescription drug abuse to tornadoes," said Gov. Beshear.  "We remain focused on the goals we brought into the administration – to create new jobs and keep them here, to manage taxpayers' money wisely, and to champion initiatives to improve public health, education and workforce development.  We have garnered national accolades for our efforts in these areas, but we aren't working for recognition.  We are working to better the lives of our Kentucky families."

1.  2ND-HIGHEST JOB GROWTH RATE IN U.S., WITH THOUSANDS OF NEW JOBS

In October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ranked Kentucky second in the nation for job growth rate over the past year, with a net increase of 2.6 percent.  That growth is more than double the rate of our nearby competitor states.  From September 2011 to September 2012, 47,000 jobs were created in the Commonwealth.

Kentucky's flexible economic development incentives and friendly business climate continue to attract more new and expanding companies to our state.  2012 was a banner year for job growth made possible by these incentives, with the announcement of 342 projects representing 13,051 prospective new jobs and 1,896 jobs saved. Those critical job-creation projects represent a more than $2.6 billion investment across the Commonwealth. 

Multiple national organizations have recognized Kentucky's prowess in nurturing and supporting businesses, including:

·        The Kauffman Foundation ranked Kentucky as one of the top 10 states for entrepreneurs, tied for the eighth-highest number of new startup companies;
·        CNBC rated Kentucky as the best state for cost of doing business;
·        State Policy Reports ranked Kentucky in the top 15 states for economic momentum;
·        Business Facilities magazine named the partnership between the Commonwealth and Ford Motor Co. as its national Economic Development Deal of the Year;
·        Trade and Industry magazine ranked the Ford Motor Company investment in Kentucky as one of the top 15 corporate projects in the U.S.;
·        Area Development magazine recognized Kentucky with a Silver Shovel Award, given to states which are the most successful in creating jobs and securing investments in new and expanding facilities; and
·        Southern Business and Development magazine named Governor Beshear its 2012 Person of the Year, based on his strong pursuit of economic opportunity for the state.

Major jobs announcements in 2012 include:

·        Anchor Packaging in Mount Vernon - $7.6 million investment, 150 jobs
·        Elovations Services Group in Erlanger - $13.7 million investment, 696 jobs
·        David Brown in Inez - $4.7 million investment, 24 jobs
·        iwis in Murray - $12.5 million investment, 75 jobs
·        Modern Transmission Development in Leitchfield - $3.7 million investment, 61 jobs
·        American Fuji Seal in Bardstown - $10 million investment, 45 jobs
·        Big Ass Fans in Lexington - $8 million investment, 150 jobs
·        Teletech Services Corporation in Hopkinsville - $12 million investment, 700 jobs
·        Amazon.com in Winchester - $20.7 million investment, 550 full-time, 600 seasonal jobs
·        CafePress Inc. in Louisville - $16.5 million investment, 592 jobs
·        Transcraft Corp. in Cadiz - $3 million, 80 jobs
·        Bluegrass Shavings in Liberty - $2.4 million investment, 50 jobs
·        GE in Louisville - $250 investment, 600 jobs
·        Plaza Recovery in Covington - $2.5 million investment, 250 jobs
·        Magna Seating in Shepherdsville - $20 million investment, 450 jobs
·        SMC in Nicholasville - $1.9 million investment, 94 jobs
·        Olympic Steel in Mount Sterling - $11.2 million investment, 40 jobs
·        Bingham McCutchen in Lexington - $22.5 million investment, 250 jobs
·        Berry Plastics in Madisonville - $96 million investment, 400 jobs

2.  POWERFUL PRESCRIPTION DRUG LAW SHUTS ILLEGAL PAIN CLINICS

The state's comprehensive prescription drug law, House Bill 1 (HB1) has been in effect for less than six months but already shows major positive impact in shutting down unlicensed pain clinics, reducing prescriptions of some of the most abused drugs, and accelerating investigations of medical providers with suspicious prescribing habits.

HB1 passed with bipartisan support in a special legislative session this spring.  The bill includes multiple elements to prevent the abuse and diversion of prescription drugs and to enhance law enforcement's tools to investigate illegal prescribing practices.

Since HB1 took effect:

·        20 of the state's known 45 pain management clinics have closed rather than submit to new rules that protect consumers. 
·        The number of medical providers registered to use the state's nationally recognized prescription monitoring program, KASPER, has more than tripled.
·        The number of daily KASPER reports has skyrocketed from less than 3,000 per day to nearly 20,000.
·        Prescriptions for some of the most abused or diverted drugs have dropped compared to a year before (Nov. 2011 to Nov. 2012), including:

o   Hydrocodone – down 16 percent;

o   Oxycodone – down 16 percent;

o   Alprazolam (Xanax) – down 20 percent; and

o   Oxymorphone (Opana) – down 48 percent.

Governor Beshear has joined forces with partners in state and federal government to close loopholes and enact policies to thwart fly-by-night providers and doctor-shoppers who wreak havoc on families and communities through prescription abuse. 

·        Gov. Beshear met with U.S. drug czar Gil Kerlikowske to advise him of Kentucky's multiple efforts to battle prescription drug abuse.
·        This spring, Gov. Beshear spoke at the National Prescription Drug Abuse Summit to call on the federal government and state to develop aggressive shared tactics to fight prescription abuse.
·        In March, Kentucky signed a multistate agreement to share prescription drug dispensing data with at least 20 other states, to provide a more comprehensive database to cut off access to abusers and identify problem prescribers. 
·        Governor Beshear added $6.1 million in new funding in the current budget for substance abuse treatment for Kentuckians enrolled in Medicaid.  That treatment includes individual therapy, group therapy, peer support and intensive case management. The funding will provide treatment for 5,800 adults and teens over the biennium.

3.  IMMEDIATE AND LONG-TERM HELP IN DISASTER RECOVERY

The March tornadoes that caused millions in damage and killed two dozen people, mostly in eastern Kentucky, are the 11th federally declared natural disaster of Gov. Beshear's administration.  After those storms, Gov. Beshear visited the disaster areas multiple times, and worked directly with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and state agencies to ensure the affected areas got needed relief assistance immediately.

The tornadoes damaged more than 2,800 homes.  Of those, 810 were destroyed.  FEMA provided $24.5 million for repair projects, and $10.2 million for individual assistance grants.

Gov. Beshear also accelerated state assistance to areas like West Liberty and Morgan County.  State agencies set up temporary offices in damaged areas within hours of the storm. The Governor directed long-term assistance as well, including providing funding for highway reconstruction and downtown redesign and rebuilding.

The summer brought scorching drought that affected nearly every Kentucky county.  Eventually, all but 3 of Kentucky's 120 counties were classified as drought disaster areas by the U.S. Agriculture Secretary.  Gov. Beshear worked with the state and federal partners to make sure farm families had access to relief assistance.

4.  FASTER, CHEAPER, SAFER:  KENTUCKY BRIDGES UNDER CONSTRUCTION 

By working across party lines with other governors, accelerating construction timelines and promoting competition among contractors, Gov. Beshear has ensured that Kentucky's critical transportation arteries are under construction faster than anticipated.  Moving quickly to build or repair these bridges will save tens of millions through increased competition and compressed timelines, and creates safer, more reliable transportation for Kentuckians.

·        Gov. Beshear joined Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana in August to break ground on the first construction phase of the Ohio River Bridges Project, which will build two new spans across the Ohio River in Louisville.  The governors, working together, identified practical solutions to cut costs to an attainable level. They also split the project, giving Kentucky authority over the downtown bridge and Indiana responsibility for the eastern span. Their combined efforts dropped project costs 40 percent from original estimates.  In November, the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet awarded the contract for construction of the downtown Louisville bridge to Walsh Construction Inc.  The contract is $90 million under estimate and the bridge is expected to be finished nearly 19 months ahead of schedule.
·        The Sherman-Minton Bridge in Louisville returned to service ahead of schedule following emergency closure in September 2011 after a suspicious crack was found during a routine inspection.  Kentucky and Indiana worked hand-in-hand to redirect traffic and expedite the repair, which was completed in February.
·        In December, Gov. Beshear joined Ohio Governor John Kasich to sign an agreement to begin the formal process for planning and building a new span alongside the Brent Spence Bridge in Covington.  The current bridge carries the entire load of both Interstate 71 and I-75 as well as local traffic.  It is classified as "functionally obsolete" because of its narrow lanes, absence of emergency shoulders and limited visibility on the lower deck.  A construction contract is could be awarded by 2014.
·        Govs. Beshear and Kasich also broke ground on another Ohio River bridge, this one spanning Ironton, Ohio, and Russell, Ky.  The Ironton-Russell Bridge is 90 years old and will be demolished after the new bridge is completed in fall 2015.
·        The Eggners Ferry Bridge, which carries U.S. 68/KY 80 across Kentucky Lake, opened to traffic 2½ days earlier than expected after emergency repairs.  The bridge was severed Jan. 26, when a cargo ship, the Delta Mariner, struck the bridge and tore away a 322-foot span.  The bridge was repaired before Memorial Day weekend, saving the summer tourism season in the Lakes Region of Western Kentucky.
·        A new U.S. 60 Tennessee River Bridge between Paducah and Ledbetter may open more than a year ahead of schedule, thanks to an aggressive construction timetable.   The Ledbetter bridge is scheduled to open by Oct. 31, 2013 – instead of an original target of July 2014.

5.  FOREIGN TRADE TRIPS LEAD TO DIRECT INVESTMENT

Gov. Beshear takes his message of Kentucky's business-friendly climate and strong workforce directly to job-creators across the globe, and 2012 offered outstanding results.  Kentucky is home to approximately 420 foreign-owned companies from 30 nations, employing more than 77,000 people, and the Governor continues to pursue more.  Nearly 35 percent of all capital investment and almost 20 percent of all jobs announced in 2012 were a result of foreign-owned enterprises.

·        Germany – after the Governor's trip in July, two German-owned automotive suppliers announced plans to invest and hire in Kentucky. Webasto Sunroof Systems announced plans to invest $10 million and add 65 jobs in Lexington, and iwis, which manufactures timing drive systems for engines, will establish its first U.S. manufacturing operation in Murray. The iwis project will create 75 new, full-time jobs and entail a more than $12.5 million investment in the Commonwealth.
·        France – after the Governor's visit to global cosmetics and hair care manufacturer L'Oreal in Paris this summer, the company announced plans to invest more than $42 million and add more than 200 new jobs in Florence.
·        Japan and Taiwan – Shortly after returning from a successful economic development trip to Asia, Gov. Beshear joined Taica North America Corp. officials to announce the company's plans to locate a manufacturing facility in Winchester. The Japanese investment will create 30 new full-time jobs over the next several years and entail a more than $8 million investment by the company. Kentucky has the second-highest per capita rate of direct investment from Japan in the country – trailing only Hawaii.
·        India – Gov. Beshear traveled to India in September, his third trip to the world's second most-populated nation.  India-based Flex Films announced $180 million in investment and 250 new jobs in Elizabethtown after his first trip.

Other countries are also making direct investments in the state.  China-owned Birtley announced in September it will invest $10 million and create 30 to 50 new, full-time jobs in Lexington.  The announcement marks the first Chinese-owned manufacturer in Kentucky.

6.  KENTUCKY LEAPS 20 SPOTS IN NATIONAL EDUCATION RANKING

Kentucky's ranking in an annual grading of all states on key education indicators jumped 20 spots in 2012, placing the state 14th in the nation for its work on academic standards, the teaching profession and many other variables related to public education.

The annual ranking by national publication Education Week is found in a special issue, "Quality Counts." The report tracks key education indicators and grades states on their policy efforts and outcomes. Last year, Kentucky ranked 34th in the nation in this annual report.

Much of the impetus for Kentucky's high ranking can be traced to 2009's Senate Bill 1, which set Kentucky on a course to become a leader nationwide in school accountability, teacher training, college/career readiness and stronger academic standards.  Kentucky was also the first state to adopt tough Common Core content standards, which set minimum standards for math and language skills.

7.  BUDGET CUTS BALANCE BOOKS, PRIORITIZE EDUCATION

Gov. Beshear balanced Kentucky's budget for the 11th time since taking office, and has now cut a total of $1.6 billion from state expenditures.  While reductions have been significant in many parts of state government, significant cuts to our priorities of education, critical public safety programs and job creation efforts have been prevented.

Governor Beshear shrank state government to its smallest size in a generation, and continues to find ways to improve government efficiency with fewer taxpayer dollars.

8.  COMMISSION OFFERS FAIRER, SIMPLER, MORE MODERN TAX CODE

Kentucky's tax system cushioned some of the impact when the nation's economy ran off the tracks in 2008.  But as the state recovers from the recession, Gov. Beshear has begun an effort to make our tax code more fair to taxpayers and our state more attractive to new and existing business. 

Early in 2012, the Governor appointed a broad, bipartisan commission to make sure our state doesn't face another economic crater by failing to update its tax code.  A study of our tax system earlier this summer revealed that without significant changes, Kentucky will face a $1 billion shortfall by 2020. 

The Governor's Blue Ribbon Commission on Tax Reform just submitted its report to the Governor, which includes dozens of recommendations that could create $659 million in additional revenue.  Gov. Beshear will study the report before he meets with legislators to build a consensus on moving forward on changes to our tax code. 

9.  OVERHAUL OF CAREER AND TECHNICAL EDUCATION

In a move to help produce the skilled workforce businesses require today and in the future, Gov. Beshear signed an executive order in August to overhaul the state's career and technical education (CTE) system.

The order unites the state's two CTE systems under the guidance of Kentucky's Department of Education. The goal is to create a unified, more relevant and efficient system to educate and prepare students for the world of work in a real-life setting.

Today's employers require a workforce that is skilled, adaptable and equipped to compete in the global marketplace. Students need an education system that provides job-training and learning opportunities that will put them on a career pathway. Transforming and elevating CTE is essential to this process.

10.  UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DEAL SAVES BUSINESSES $600 MILLION

Gov. Beshear signed House Bill 495, a measure that provides the resources to pay interest owed on the state's federal Unemployment Insurance (UI) loan and that will save Kentucky employers $600 million in federal tax penalties.

The bill is the result of collaborative work by Kentucky employer groups. Since January 2009, Kentucky borrowed more than $960 million from the federal government to continue paying UI benefits to eligible Kentuckians, much like other states had to do. If HB 495 had not been enacted and Kentucky could not make the interest payment due Sept. 30, 2012, employers would lose all of the federal tax credit, and the UI tax payable by employers would rise.

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Follow Governor Beshear on Twitter @Govstevebeshear, read the Governor's personal notes on his blog at http://.governor.ky.gov/blog, and view the Governor's weekly YouTube commentary at http://www.youtube.com/governorbeshear.