Election Update

2014 Election Update

Kentuckians went to the polls today after what has been a contentious campaign season. The U.S. Senate race between Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Alison Lundergan Grimes and control of the state House were in question.  All six Congressional seats were up  with half of the State Senate and numerous local races also on the ballot.

Below are the unofficial results based on current information available. We will provide a more extensive summary and analysis in the coming days. 

U.S. Senate - McConnell Wins

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was challenged by Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. After what many thought would be a close race, McConnell won by what appears to be 15% points.  After the race was called early in the evening, the big question became whether a Republican wave would follow, especially in the State House races.

KY State House of Representatives - Democrats Maintain Majority

After millions of dollars were poured into State House races, it looks like the evening ends in a wash.  The House Democrats held a 54-46 majority going into tonight and while it appears the margin will stay the same, some races still aren't final at this time.

Of the 100 House seats, there were 52 contested races.  The Democrats held 28 of those seats, while the Republicans held 24. 

Two House Democrat incumbents did fall - Rep. Jimmie Lee and Rep. Richard Henderson.  One Republican incumbent, Rep. Toby Herald, also appears to have been defeated.

Details on House races to follow, after all races have been called.

Congress - All 6 Incumbents Win

Incumbent Kentucky Congressmen, Whitfield, Guthrie, Yarmuth, Massie, Rogers, and Barr all handily win reelection.

State Senate - Republicans pick up 2 seats (plus 1)

The Senate Republicans now hold the majority by a margin of 26-12.  The numbers going into tonight were 23-14-1, although the Independent caucused as a Republican.  

Of the Senate races, the most interesting was the loss by incumbent and Senate Minority Leader RJ Palmer to a Republican physician, Ralph Alvarado.  Alvarado will be the first Latino elected to the Kentucky General Assembly.

Former House member CB Embry (R) wins in Madisonville which is currently a Democratic seat.

Supreme Court - Keller wins

In the only contested Supreme Court race, incumbent Michelle Keller defeated Teresa Cunningham.

You can find various media reports of the election results from across the state in our KY Political News email tomorrow morning.  Again, we will provide a detailed breakdown as it relates to the Kentucky Legislature in the coming days.

KY Primary Election Update

Kentuckians went to the polls on Tuesday to cast votes to select party nominees in the 2014 Primary Election. Despite several high profile elections, in particular the U.S. Senate race that is getting national attention, voters went to the polls in low numbers with turnout being measured at around 24%.

- In the U.S. Senate race, the U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell won the Republican primary against Matt Bevin. On the Democrat side, KY Secretary of State Allison Lundergan Grimes won the primary and thus McConnell and Grimes will square off in November.

Of interest in state legislative races, there were 22 primary races in the State House and 6 in the State Senate. The key highlights from these 28 races are:

- Two Incumbents Lose: Of the 28 state legislative primary races, 14 incumbents (11 in the House and 3 in the Senate) had challengers and all prevailed except for these:  

• Senator Sara Beth Gregory (R-Monticello) lost to Max Wise a Republican political science professor. This was a hard fought race in a district that was augmented significantly through redistricting.

• Representative Keith Hall (D-Pikeville) lost to Chris Harris a Democrat local official. Redistricting may have played a factor in this race also as Martin County was added and apparently Harris ran well their.

- New Legislators: In the event that a candidate doesn’t draw a challenger from the opposite party then some primary races are the final election and determine who will serve the legislative district that was the case in 9 races (3 in the Senate and 6 in the House). These candidates join those legislators running unopposed in the General Election and will join or continue in the ranks of the General Assembly:

• Senate: Incumbent Republicans Sen. Paul Hornback and Sen. Dan Seum. They will be joined by Max Wise who won the 16th District primary.

• House: Incumbent Republicans Rep. Addia Wuchner, Rep. Tim Moore, and Rep. Regina Bunch. Incumbent Democrat Rep. Fitz Steele will be joined by Chris Harris who won the 93rd primary and former Lexington Councilman George Brown who won the open seat to replace retiring legislator Jesse Crenshaw.   

We will focus heavily on media reports of the various election results from across the state in our KY Political News email tomorrow. Further we will have an updated breakdown of candidates for the general election in the days to follow.

And Then There Was...One

On Sunday we sent out an email laying out how we thought the final two days of the legislative session would likely play out with the main issues being overriding vetoes and the transportation budget. The General Assembly took no action on either of those topics today. 

The legislature did move several issues along. They gave final passage to several bills, including: HB 369 (reducing contractual statute of limitations) and SB 200 (juvenile justice reform). They also appointed conference committees for others like HB 125 (lab reports). Besides posturing over the transportation budgets, the legislature, and in particular the House, found itself dealing with the outcome of the Legislative Ethics Commission decision in the John Arnold case from last week. 

The General Assembly will return at 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday, April 15 for the final day of the 2014 Session.

Newsletter Technical Issues

We have experienced some outages and technical problems over the past several days with our news feeds that produce our nightly newsletters. We believe to have the problem solved and will be doing a supplemental newsletter delivery today, Monday @ 1:00 pm EST. Then normal delivery timing should resume tonight at 1:00 a.m.

Thanks and sorry for the inconvenience.

Candidate Filing Deadline

As we have mentioned in our various reports leading up to and during the legislative session, the 2014 State Legislative elections look to be an important dynamic impacting all issues for this session. Yesterday the candidate filing deadline past, and so now the field of candidates for May and November elections is set.

The spreadsheet below provides a quick look at the candidates that have filed. There are tabs for State House, State Senate, and Supreme Court. On the charts the colors signify: Yellow are primaries, green are unopposed incumbents, and red are incumbents with races. 

This is all very preliminary in terms of analysis, but here are a few facts:

State Senate

- Of the 19 Senate seats up in 2014, 13 are contested and 4 of those are open seats (Leeper, Rhoads, Denton, Stine).

- 9 of the 13 contested seats are currently held by Republicans, 3 by Democrats, and 1 by Independent. 

- 3 Incumbents have primaries (Gregory, Hornback, and Wilson)

- The Republicans currently control the Senate 23-14-1. 

State House

-  Of the 100 seats up in 2014, 62 are contested in either the primary or general election, of which Democrats hold 34 and Republicans hold 28.

- There are 7 open seats all contested (J. Adams, B. Damron, D. Butler, J.W. Stacy, CB Embry, and J. Crenshaw).

- 12 incumbents have May primaries (6 Democrats: Hall, D.Watkins, Glenn, J.Lee, Steele, Collins) & (6 Republicans: Moore, Webber, Bunch, Rader, Upchurch and Wuchner)

- The Democrats currently hold the House 54-46.