Monday, October 10, 2011

State Revenues Rebound

The State Budget Director Mary Lassiter released the September revenue receipts today and the General Fund revenues were up 10% and the Road Fund revenues were up 5.9% over September 2010. You can download the full release and numbers HERE, our analysis is below:

- After General Fund revenues decreased in August, for the first time in over a year, they came back strong in September. The General Fund revenues only have to achieve 0.2% increase over the rest of the fiscal year to achieve the estimated growth of 1.3%. This seems likely if the state's economy is able to shrug off the woes of the national economy.

- The Road Fund continues its growth with the fifteenth straight month of revenue increases. The Road Fund can actually fall 1.4% over the rest of the fiscal year and achieve the official revenue estimate. A significant surplus in the Road Fund seems likely if gas prices continue at their current levels.

Analysis: The Consensus Forecasting Group, the economists that predict the revenues the next state budget will based on, have been meeting and reviewing the state's economy. In August they were relatively upbeat because the 2011 FY was in the books and the state had made a significant deposit of $121 million in the rainy day fund. But at their September meeting the national economy had soured and the August receipts were down and they were very pessimistic about the state's short term and long term revenues. The question is how will strong growth in September revenues impact their outlook at the upcoming CFG meeting this Friday, Oct. 14?

Stay tuned!

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